January 23, 2025
Barely a few hours after the seat that Biden occupied became cold, Trump got to work. Hours after his swearing-in, he commenced signing executive orders that will have a major impact on Africa.
In one of my articles, I spoke about what we could expect from President Trump and posed the question of whether Africa is prepared. It would seem some of the things I predicted would happen have already happened in the last 72 hours. I had some private readers reach out to my inbox, stating that Trump would not realize many of the things he promised and that foreign aid would forever keep flowing to Africa because there are major interests at play. My response was simple: let us see. After all, a man who has survived all odds, including a bullet to his face, and is still here to be sworn in as the 47th President, should have shown us by now that when Trump puts his mind to something, it happens. Furthermore, he has the Congress and the Senate to support anything he wants.
Let us analyze the executive orders that have been passed since January 20, 2025, and their potential impact on Africa.
Reevaluating and Realigning U.S. Foreign Aid
President Trump’s executive order pausing U.S. foreign development assistance for 90 days signals a seismic shift in how aid is deployed. The 2024 Foreign Aid Budget for the USA was broken down as follows: Nigeria – USD 625 million; Mozambique – 564 million; Uganda – 562 million; Tanzania – USD 561 million; Kenya – USD 514 million and Zambia – USD 507 million. These amounts are not necessarily fully deployed depending on circumstances, for example Uganda last year passed a controversial law on LGBTQ+, banning the same which attracted “sanctions” from the USA in the form of freezing of aid budgets and withdrawal from legal instruments for trade like AGOA. Last year the United States announced through its Secretary of State that it will provide an additional $380 million in humanitarian assistance for Africa. If you put this aside though, we do see that the intended allocated amounts are significant and removal of the same will make a big difference.
In the light of this recent Trump executive order, African nations heavily reliant on U.S. aid may find themselves scrambling to adjust to the suspension. This review aims to align aid distribution with America’s strategic interests, potentially sidelining programs that do not directly benefit U.S. priorities. For Africa, this could mean disruptions in health, education, and infrastructure projects. NGOs dependent on these funds may face operational challenges, leaving gaps in essential services.
This decision calls for African leaders to rethink their dependency on external funding. The temporary halt should be a wake-up call to explore sustainable domestic solutions to economic and social challenges.
Withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO)
Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the WHO has profound implications for Africa. Since the creation of the WHO, the U.S. has been the WHO’s biggest donor, contributing USD 1.28 billion in 2022-2023. Africa continues to be the biggest recipient of WHO funding, having received in 2022-2023 for example 26 percent of the funding – the highest portion. The WHO’s presence on the continent is critical for tackling diseases like malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Without U.S. financial and technical support, the organization’s capacity to respond to health crises could diminish significantly. While the U.S. promises to redirect resources to bilateral health programs, the effectiveness of this approach remains uncertain.
African health systems, already under strain, may face additional challenges in combating pandemics and public health emergencies. This withdrawal underscores the importance of strengthening intra-African health collaborations and funding mechanisms.
America First Trade Policy
The “America First” trade policy emphasizes protectionism and prioritizing U.S. economic interests. This could negatively impact African exports to the U.S., particularly under trade agreements like AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), which have only received a renewal of one year and may all together disappear after the expiration of the term in 2026. The America First trade policy means stricter conditions or renegotiations might limit African countries’ market access, widening trade deficits and stifling economic growth.
Furthermore, this policy could discourage foreign direct investment (FDI) into Africa, as U.S. companies might focus on domestic opportunities. African nations must diversify their trade partners and foster regional trade agreements to mitigate these impacts.
Unleashing American Energy
By promoting domestic energy production, including fossil fuels and rare earth minerals, the U.S. aims to reduce dependence on foreign imports, particularly China. After the discovery of two billion metric tons of rare earth minerals in Wyoming, Trump intends to leverage this and make America a world leader. President Trump has made it clear that there will be significant investment in this sector. With the USA ranking in the top 10 out of 190 countries to do business in by the World Bank East of Doing Business index, investors who are currently considering Africa for investing may divert funds to the USA where investing is much more attractive. Hence, Trump’s push for rare earth mineral dominance may compete directly with African economies looking to develop their resource sectors. Furthermore, for African countries exporting oil, gas, and minerals to the U.S., this shift could mean reduced demand and lower revenues.
This order highlights the need for Africa to move beyond raw material exports and focus on adding value locally. Developing industries around mineral processing and renewable energy can help offset the economic challenges posed by this policy.
Protection of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Policies
Trump’s restrictive immigration policies will make it harder for African migrants and refugees to settle in the U.S. This has a dual effect: reducing the growth of remittance flows to African nations from the diaspora and straining African countries hosting refugees. As opportunities for migration diminish, African governments will find themselves under pressure to create conducive environments for economic growth and employment to retain talent.
Withdrawal from International Environmental Agreements
The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and other environmental commitments could slow global progress on climate change. Africa, one of the most climate-vulnerable regions, stands to lose access to climate finance and technical assistance. Reduced support for renewable energy projects and climate adaptation efforts could hinder Africa’s ability to address the adverse effects of climate change.
This development reinforces the urgency for African nations to lead their own climate initiatives. Strengthening regional cooperation and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) to promote green energy investments can be pivotal.
Conclusion
President Trump’s executive orders signify a shift towards unilateralism and protectionism, with significant implications for Africa. The continent’s dependency on foreign aid, trade, and international partnerships is being tested. While these policies may seem like setbacks, they also present an opportunity for Africa to chart a new path forward.
African leaders need to plan now, and more than ever, they need to unite. Squabbles over which country or bloc should represent Africa on the UN Security Council are counterproductive and show a lack of seriousness about Africa’s global role. The time has come to enact the African Continental Free Trade Agreement fully, promote intra-African trade, and invest in local industries.
If there is one lesson to learn from Trump’s policies, it is that the world is moving towards nationalism and protectionism. More leaders with Trump-like ideologies will emerge, prioritizing their nations at the expense of multilateralism. For Africa, this is not only about finding new partners or reinforcing existing partnerships like the EU, China, or the UAE, but what trade and investment policies are countries putting in place in order to become truly self-reliant?
Africa must focus on brokering win-win trade and investment deals that include technology and knowledge transfers. Empowering the continent to be self-reliant is the only way to withstand the changing tides of global politics. A new dawn for Africa lies in its ability to rise above dependency, harness its resources, and embrace unity for sustainable development.
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