The East African Insider – Week 27th December 2025-2nd January 2026

Introduction

As we welcome 2026, we are pleased to share the first edition of this year’s East Africa investment Newsletter and extend our best wishes to our readers and partners. Kicking off the year, our trend of the week focuses on how global LNG growth is reshaping Africa’s energy priorities and opening long-term investment opportunities in gas-to-power, pipelines, and regional distribution. Around the region, early signals for 2026 are taking shape. Tanzania records historic investment inflows, Kenya advances a new infrastructure financing framework, Uganda strengthens agro-industrial and biofuels capacity, Rwanda reaches new milestones in capital market development, the DRC attracts substantial commitments to the Lobito Corridor, and South Sudan remains focused on fiscal stability as a foundation for future investment. As these dynamics unfold, we look ahead to a year of deeper reforms, larger capital flows, and expanding opportunities, and we look forward to bringing you timely insights as 2026 progresses

Trend of the week

Global LNG growth reshapes investment opportunities across Africa

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is projected to rise sharply from 2027, driven by new and expanded capacity in the United States, Qatar, and North Africa, with total supply expected to reach nearly 594 million tonnes by 2030, around 42% higher than 2024 levels. While this expansion is likely to create a sustained LNG surplus globally, it presents Africa with both a challenge and an opportunity. As African gas production accelerates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, limited domestic infrastructure continues to constrain local consumption, forcing producers to rely heavily on exports despite rising regional demand. However, momentum is building toward a more integrated gas economy. Major pipeline, LNG-to-power, and regional distribution projects across West, North, and Southern Africa signal a strategic shift from pure export models toward domestic value creation. Investments such as the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline, Mozambique–Zambia pipeline, Senegal’s gas-to-power networks, and emerging LNG distribution corridors aim to link production directly to electricity generation, industrial use, and regional trade. For foreign investors, this transition opens opportunities across midstream infrastructure, power generation, petrochemicals, and logistics, positioning natural gas as a cornerstone of Africa’s long-term energy security, industrialisation, and economic resilience amid an increasingly competitive global LNG market. For foreign investors, the shift from export-only LNG projects toward gas-to-power, pipelines, and regional distribution infrastructure creates long-term opportunities in midstream assets, power generation, and industrial gas use, with stable, utility-backed cash flows and growing demand across African markets.

Tanzania

Tanzania breaks investment records with USD 10.95bn inflows

Tanzania recorded a historic surge in investment activity in 2025, with 915 projects valued at approximately USD 10.95 billion registered between January and December—the highest annual intake since independence and well above the government’s USD 10 billion target. The performance surpassed the 901 projects worth USD 9.3 billion recorded in 2024, reflecting growing investor confidence driven by regulatory predictability, institutional reforms, and sustained political stability. The projects span key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, transport, and commercial construction, and are expected to generate over 168,000 jobs once fully operational. Domestic participation remained strong, with about 51% of projects involving Tanzanian investors, either independently or through joint ventures, underscoring a deepening local capital base alongside foreign inflows. The rebound marks a sharp turnaround from 2021, when investment registrations stood at USD 3.79 billion, highlighting the impact of policy reforms introduced under President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s administration. For foreign investors, the data signals a maturing and increasingly efficient investment environment, supported by streamlined approvals through the Tanzania Investment and Special Economic Zones Authority (TISEZA), where permits can now be issued within 24 hours. Tanzania’s rise to ninth place in Africa for investment attractiveness, up from 12th in 2024, alongside strong participation from China, the UAE, and the UK, points to growing competitiveness as a regional investment destination. With the government targeting USD 15 billion in new projects in 2026 and USD 50 billion cumulatively by 2030, the outlook suggests expanding opportunities for international capital seeking scale, sectoral diversification, and long-term growth in East Africa.

Kenya

Kenya rebuilds its infrastructure financing model to attract long-term capital

President William Ruto has unveiled the National Infrastructure Fund as a central pillar of Kenya’s evolving development and financing strategy, marking a decisive shift in how the country plans to fund and deliver large-scale infrastructure. In his New Year’s Address from State Lodge, Eldoret, the President framed 2026 as a year of execution, noting that the foundations laid over the past three years now require scale, discipline, and focus to translate policy into tangible outcomes. At the core of this roadmap is a new financing architecture aimed at reducing reliance on debt while accelerating transformative infrastructure delivery. Set to be fully operationalised in January 2026 alongside the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the National Infrastructure Fund is positioned as the engine aligning financial resources with national development priorities. The model seeks to mobilise domestic resources, leverage private capital, monetise mature public assets, and deepen capital market participation to unlock long-term growth.

President Ruto emphasised that all proceeds from privatisation will be ring-fenced and reinvested strictly in value-generating public infrastructure, reinforcing fiscal discipline and investor confidence. Complementing this framework, the Sovereign Wealth Fund will focus on long-term national resilience, intergenerational equity, and protection against external shocks. The financing strategy is directly tied to priority projects, including major highways, the Talanta Sports Complex, the Bomas International Convention Centre, and the planned Naivasha–Narok–Kisumu–Malaba Standard Gauge Railway, positioning infrastructure as a catalyst for productivity, exports, job creation, and sustained economic growth.

Uganda

USD 100m ethanol facility positions Uganda as a regional hub for biofuels and value-added manufacturing

President Yoweri Museveni has commissioned a USD 100 million (about Shs 380 billion) ethanol and extra-neutral alcohol (ENA) production plant built by PRO Industries Pte Limited in Ndibulungi Village, Luweero District, marking a significant milestone in Uganda’s push toward agro-industrialisation and clean energy development, according to Nile Post. Speaking during the launch alongside the First Lady and Minister of Education and Sports, Maama Janet Kataha Museveni, the President said the investment underscores Uganda’s shift away from exporting raw materials toward local processing, value addition, job creation and sustainable industrial growth, while assuring investors and workers of continued government efforts to improve labour welfare and reduce key production costs such as electricity, transport and access to finance. He emphasised that manufacturing and agro-processing remain central to Uganda’s long-term economic transformation by providing reliable markets for farmers and stable employment. PRO Industries Managing Director Ridhi Always said the Luweero facility is the largest ENA and ethanol plant in East Africa, with a daily production capacity of 120,000 litres of extra-neutral alcohol and 35,000 litres of ethanol, and noted that the company works with over 2,000 farmers who supply maize as a key raw material. She highlighted Uganda’s leadership in renewable energy and biofuels, pointing to the upcoming ethanol-blending requirement for all locally sold petroleum products from January 2026 under Vision 2040 and the Biofuels Act of 2020, a policy expected to reduce the country’s USD 2 billion annual petroleum import bill, cut carbon emissions and promote cleaner energy use. The commissioning of the plant positions Luweero as an emerging industrial hub and reinforces Uganda’s growing role in agro-processing, renewable energy and value-added manufacturing, supported by a stable investment climate that continues to attract long-term capital.

Rwanda

Rwanda stock exchange hits record USD 4.5 billion market capitalization in 2025

The Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE) closed 2025 with record-breaking performance across turnover, market capitalization, and capital-raising activity, underscoring its rapid evolution into a more liquid and sophisticated frontier market. Annual turnover reached approximately USD 129 million, up from about USD 89 million in 2024. Total market capitalization stood at roughly USD 4.5 billion, comprising USD 3.18 billion in equities and USD 1.31 billion in fixed-income instruments. Market liquidity deepened further as the OTC and repo market recorded turnover of about USD 3.06 billion. During the year, the Exchange facilitated USD 6.2 million in SME financing, enabled the IFC to raise about USD 16.4 million through the Umuganda Bond, and supported USD 223 million in government fundraising for public projects.

Beyond scale, the RSE made notable progress in market innovation and international integration, enhancing its attractiveness to foreign investors. The Exchange launched a Green Exchange Window for ESG-linked securities, introduced platforms for REITs and ETFs, rolled out a multicurrency-denominated securities segment to support cross-border participation, and advanced plans for an Islamic finance framework. Kigali’s hosting of the 28th ASEA Conference and the inaugural Pan-Africa ESG Awards, alongside the RSE’s admission to the World Federation of Exchanges and the UN Sustainable Stock Exchanges Net Zero Alliance, further strengthened its global standing. For foreign investors, these developments signal improving depth, diversified instruments, stronger governance, and closer alignment with global standards—positioning Rwanda as an increasingly credible entry point for capital deployment in East Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo

Africa’s Lobito corridor attracts USD 6 billion+ in investment, positioning region for future mineral demand surge

Global investor momentum behind the Lobito Corridor infrastructure initiative has surged, with total commitments now exceeding USD 6 billion, reinforcing the project’s position as a strategic gateway for linking Africa’s rich critical minerals deposits to international markets. The corridor, which connects the mineral-rich regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Zambia and Angola to global trade routes via the Port of Lobito on Angola’s Atlantic coast, recently secured a USD 535 million financing package in December 2025 co-financed by the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Trafigura, Mota-Engil, Vecturis and the Development Bank of Southern Africa, advancing rehabilitation of the 1,289-km Benguela Railway which is a vital transport artery for minerals like copper and cobalt. The United States has committed over USD 4 billion to the broader corridor initiative, signalling strong geopolitical and commercial backing. European investors have expanded their participation, providing nearly USD 62 million in grants for mining, transport and energy projects in Angola and an additional USD 216 million in investments in Zambia under the EU’s Global Gateway framework, as part of more than USD 2.15 billion pledged to the Lobito Corridor to strengthen resilient supply chains and diversify access to critical minerals. Private capital engagement has also deepened, including the launch of a USD 1 billion investment platform by a consortium led by Menomadin & Mitrelli Group and the Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund to draw in international investment across infrastructure and economic development projects. Multilateral institutions like the Africa Finance Corporation and the African Development Bank are mobilising capital from global investors, further solidifying financial support. With global demand for critical minerals projected to quadruple by 2040, driven by the energy transition, electrification and clean technology sectors and vast untapped mineral resources in the DRC estimated at USD 24 trillion, the Lobito Corridor is emerging as a transformative investment platform for regional industrial integration and global supply chain diversification.

South Sudan

Fiscal stability seen as gateway to investment in oil-rich South Sudan

The U.S. Embassy in South Sudan has urged the country’s leadership to prioritize the use of public revenues for essential services and government salaries in 2026, highlighting fiscal discipline as a foundation for peace, stability, and long-term growth. In a New Year’s statement, the Embassy emphasized the payment of civil servants, soldiers, and police, alongside increased spending on health and education, as critical steps toward restoring confidence in public finance management. The call comes amid persistent salary arrears, weak oil revenue governance, and prolonged economic instability in a country that holds some of the largest crude oil reserves in sub-Saharan Africa. The Embassy further encouraged peaceful dialogue and reforms aimed at transitioning South Sudan from aid dependence to an investment-friendly economy. While no specific policy measures were outlined, the statement reinforces sustained international pressure for governance reforms, transparency in oil revenue use, and macroeconomic stabilization as prerequisites for attracting long-term private capital. For investors, the message signals continued external scrutiny on fiscal governance and oil revenue management, key risk factors in South Sudan. Improved salary payments and public finance discipline could lower political and security risks over time, while failure to reform would sustain high country risk premiums, particularly for energy, infrastructure, and frontier-market investors.

Upcoming event

Central & Eastern European (CEE) Forum 2026

Date: 13–14 January 2026

Venue: Hilton Vienna Park, Vienna, Austria

Agenda:

A high-level gathering uniting governments, financial institutions, corporates, and global investors to shape funding, investment, and financial market development across Central and Eastern Europe.

How to register: Register online through this link- https://theceeforum.com/pricing

Who should attend:

• Finance ministers and senior government officials
• Central bank governors and regulators
• Institutional and global investors
• Banks, asset managers, and financial institutions
• Corporates operating or investing in CEE markets
• Policy makers, advisors, and market strategists

Key features

• The largest and most influential event dedicated to CEE markets
• Over 2,000 delegates from 54 countries (based on the 2025 edition)
• 31-year legacy as the definitive CEE financial markets forum
• High-level policy discussions and market intelligence
• Direct access to decision-makers shaping CEE funding and investment flows

Opinion of the week

“Global investors have been urged to look beyond conventional markets and explore the vast, largely untapped trade and investment opportunities in East African region.”

James Mwangi, Equity Group CEO and Managing Director

Conclusion

As 2026 begins, the developments across East and Central Africa underscore a clear shift toward scale, structure, and long-term capital alignment. From the reconfiguration of Africa’s gas value chains amid a changing global LNG market, to record investment inflows in Tanzania, new infrastructure financing models in Kenya, industrial deepening in Uganda, capital market maturation in Rwanda, and strategic mineral corridor investments across the DRC and the wider region, the common thread is a deliberate move toward resilience, value creation, and invest ability. For foreign investors, these trends point to expanding opportunities in infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, logistics, and financial markets backed by policy reform, improving institutions, and rising regional integration. As the year unfolds, we will continue to track the signals that matter most, helping investors navigate risk, identify growth sectors, and position capital for sustainable returns across East Africa and the broader African investment landscape.

Resources

1. Oil and gas Middle East (2025)

https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/gas-africa-path-global-lng-surge

2. Press wire (2025)

https://presswire.com/release/record-investments-drive-job-creation-and-industrial-growth-in-tanzania/

3. Capital fm (2025) Business

4. Bio energy times (2025)

https://bioenergytimes.com/uganda-museveni-commissions-100-million-ethanol-plant-in-luweero/

5. Taarifa (2025)

https://taarifa.rw/index.php/2025/12/31/rwanda-stock-exchange-posts-historic-2025-performance-ahead-of-15th-anniversary/

6. Energy Capital Power (2025)

7. Radio Tamazuj (2025)