June 17 2025
Introduction
Welcome to this week’s East Africa investment trends newsletter, where we unpack the major fiscal and economic developments shaping the region’s investment landscape. As the 2025/26 national budgets roll out across the East African Community (EAC) member states, a notable trend has emerged, countries are prioritizing localized development agendas over regional integration. Uganda unveiled a USD 18.7 billion budget, investing heavily in human capital, security, and infrastructure, while Kenya’s USD 32.3 billion plan focuses on education and energy-ICT development. Tanzania, with a USD 22.2 billion allocation, is channelling funds into debt servicing and Afcon 2027 preparations. Meanwhile, Rwanda’s USD 5.4 billion budget targets agriculture, private sector growth, and climate resilience.
Beyond budget matters, Tanzania made headlines with a record-breaking USD 411.2 million dividend collection from public institutions, reflecting the success of its state-owned enterprises reform. Kenya took a bold monetary policy step by slashing its base rate to 9.75% to stimulate growth amid declining inflation. Uganda eyes an ambitious 7% growth projection driven by oil prospects and broad-based sectoral expansion. In Burundi, the AfDB’s USD 696 million railway investment is set to unlock significant mining and agriculture potential. Rwanda resumes construction of Bugesera International Airport with an eye on 2027, aiming to cement its place as an aviation hub. Lastly, the DRC’s Advans Congo plans to inject over USD 100 million into the economy through expanded SME lending, signaling growing financial inclusion. As an investor, now is the time to closely monitor these evolving fiscal strategies and sector-specific priorities. Opportunities abound across infrastructure, energy, financial services, agriculture, and aviation but navigating them will require a country-focused approach. Stay informed, assess risks, and position yourself early to tap into East Africa’s next wave of growth.
Trend of the week
EAC economies prioritize local development creating sector-specific investor opportunities
The recently unveiled 2025/26 national budgets across East African Community (EAC) countries Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda reflect a clear shift toward individualized fiscal strategies, with limited emphasis on regional integration. Each country has focused on domestic priorities such as infrastructure, human capital development, and debt servicing, indicating a fragmented approach despite being part of a common economic bloc. Uganda, with a budget of approximately USD 18.7 billion, is channelling major funds into human capital (USD 2.9 billion), security (USD 2.6 billion), and transport infrastructure (USD 1.6 billion) as it eyes a USD 500 billion economy by 2040. Kenya, projecting a USD 32.3 billion budget, prioritizes education (USD 4.6 billion) and the development of energy and ICT infrastructure (USD 3.4 billion). Tanzania’s USD 22.2 billion budget centres on debt repayments, public wages, and preparations for hosting Afcon 2027, while Rwanda has allocated around USD 5.4 billion toward agriculture, private sector growth, and climate resilience with part of that including a USD 47 million funding boost from China. Although all four countries share some common goals like job creation and increased domestic revenue mobilization, there is minimal alignment on regional trade, harmonized taxation, or cross-border infrastructure. Experts have raised concerns over the lack of attention to EAC integration in the budgets, with analysts describing the integration agenda as being on the back burner. Despite some shared commitments like regional stadium construction for Afcon 2027 the persistence of trade barriers and differing national agendas suggests limited cooperation in policy execution.
For foreign investors, these developments present both opportunities and cautionary signals. On the one hand, the significant public investments in infrastructure, education, and ICT across individual EAC countries may open up targeted entry points for sector-specific investment. On the other hand, the lack of regional fiscal coordination and slow progress on economic integration could hinder cross-border investment strategies, increase transaction costs, and reduce the predictability of regulatory environments. Investors looking at the EAC as a unified market may need to recalibrate their strategies to navigate country-specific policies, while also monitoring regional political dynamics and infrastructure commitments that may shape future integration.
Tanzania
Tanzania breaks fiscal records with USD 411.2 million collection from public institutions
As of June 9, 2025, Tanzania achieved a historic milestone by collecting a record USD 411.2 million in dividends and contributions from 213 companies in which the government holds shares comprising 195 public institutions and 18 minority-owned entities. This collection, the highest ever recorded, marks a 34% increase from the previous financial year’s USD 306.8 million. Of the total amount, 59% was sourced from dividends paid by profit-making entities, 35% from the statutory 15% of companies’ gross revenues, and the remaining 6% from other income streams, including loan repayments, interest on on-lent funds, and fees from the Telecommunications Traffic Monitoring System (TTMS).
The figures were unveiled by Treasury Registrar Nehemiah Mchechu during the Dividend Day ceremony held on June 10, 2025, at the State House in Dar es Salaam, officiated by President Samia Suluhu Hassan. The event celebrated high-performing institutions from sectors such as banking, energy, ports, housing, and health. Notable contributors included Twiga Minerals Corporation, which led with USD 37.44 million, Airtel Tanzania with USD 29.56 million, and NMB Bank Plc with USD 27.28 million, a significant jump from its previous USD 6.4 million. NBC also saw its contribution increase from USD 520,000 to USD 4 million. In the category of gross revenue contributors, Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) led with USD 72.44 million, followed by NIDA and the Tanzania Forest Services Agency. Institutions showing the strongest year-on-year growth included the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation, which doubled its contributions, while the National Housing Corporation and Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank saw increases of 363% and 285% respectively. Organizations like TCRA, TASAC, and BRELA were recognized for consistent contributions over five years. A highlight of the awards was the turnaround of the Tanzania Zambia Mafuta Pipeline, which posted a USD 2.64 million dividend. The Bank of Tanzania received special recognition for its strategic contributions to fiscal stability and the Government Consolidated Fund.
Registrar Mchechu noted that of the USD 411.2 million collected, USD 241.36 million came from profit-making SOEs, USD 145.36 million from non-commercial public institutions, and USD 8.4 million from other sources. He also reported a 47% increase in contributing institutions, rising from 145 in 2024 to 213 in 2025, with additional contributions expected by the fiscal year’s close on June 30. President Samia attributed the strong performance to her administration’s “4Rs” reform agenda, emphasizing productivity, efficiency, and institutional accountability. She noted that the significant contributions have eased the national budget burden and underscored the impact of ongoing reforms. Setting a new target of USD 600 million for the next fiscal year, the President called for deeper reforms, clear revenue targets, enhanced monitoring, and greater adoption of digital tools and capital markets to ensure long-term efficiency and sustainability in public enterprises.
Kenya
CBK cuts lending rate to 9.75% to stimulate economic growth
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has lowered its prime lending rate by 25 basis points to 9.75% as of June 10, 2025, continuing a trend of monetary easing aimed at stimulating economic activity and supporting private sector credit. This marks the fourth consecutive rate cut since August 2024, when the rate stood at 13%. The move follows a significant reduction in April, when the CBK cut the rate from 10.75% to 10% in response to subdued inflation and a stable exchange rate environment. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that there was room for further easing to reinforce earlier measures, while ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored and exchange rate stability is preserved. Kenya’s inflation has continued to decline, reaching 3.8% in May 2025 from 4.1% in April, remaining well below the CBK’s midpoint target of 5% ± 2.5%. This downward trend has been supported by stable food and energy prices, coupled with a resilient Kenyan Shilling. Encouraged by these developments, commercial banks had advocated for an additional rate cut, arguing that the macroeconomic environment favored expanded credit access to the private sector.
However, Kenya’s economic performance remains mixed. Growth slowed to 4.7% in 2024 from 5.7% in 2023, largely due to sectoral weaknesses and external shocks. Although early 2025 indicators suggest modest improvements, the CBK slightly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for the year from 5.4% to 5.2%, citing pressures from higher global trade tariffs. Compounding these challenges, the country continues to grapple with high public debt and regional disruptions, including severe flooding. Despite these hurdles, there are positive signs. A review by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October 2024 highlighted a return of investor confidence, with external funding pressures easing, the Shilling stabilizing, and foreign exchange reserves improving. The CBK’s consistent monetary easing reflects a strategic effort to balance economic growth, financial stability, and inflation control in a complex and evolving macroeconomic landscape.
Uganda
Uganda sets path to double-digit growth fuelled by oil prospects
Uganda has projected a strong economic growth of 7% for the 2025/26 financial year, with prospects of achieving double-digit growth once the country begins oil and gas production. While presenting the national budget estimates to Parliament, Finance Minister Matia Kasaija emphasized that the Ugandan economy has significantly bolstered its resilience to both domestic and external shocks. The national economy is expected to expand to USD 66.1 billion, boosting GDP per capita to USD 1,324, up from USD 1,263 in the current fiscal year ending June 30. This promising outlook builds on the impressive momentum from the current 2024/25 financial year, which is projected to close with 6.3% growth, following a robust 8.6% expansion in the third quarter, and up from 6.1% in 2023/24.
Minister Kasaija credited the consistent upward trajectory to broad-based growth across key sectors, including agriculture, industry, and a rapidly expanding services sector led by information and communications technology. He further highlighted that these gains stem from the government’s targeted interventions and prudent fiscal and monetary policies, which have created a favourable environment for private sector investment. With oil and gas development on the horizon, Uganda’s economic future appears even more promising, signalling a pivotal shift toward greater industrialization, job creation, and regional economic competitiveness.
Burundi
USD 696M railway investment to unlock Burundi’s mining and agriculture potential
The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a significant financing package of USD 696.41 million to support Phase 2 of the Tanzania-Burundi-DRC Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project. This phase will involve the construction of 651 kilometers of a one-way electrified railway, connecting Burundi to Tanzania’s existing SGR network and extending to the Port of Dar es Salaam. The project is divided into three main sections: the 411-kilometer Tabora-Kigoma railway, the 156-kilometer Uvinza-Malagarasi line, and the 84-kilometer Malagarasi-Musongati segment in Burundi. The new railway is expected to unlock major development opportunities for Burundi, particularly in its mining and agricultural sectors, by providing a direct and efficient route to a major port.
The total cost of the SGR project is estimated at USD 3.93 billion. AfDB’s contribution includes USD 98.62 million in grants for Burundi and USD 597.79 million in loans and guarantees for Tanzania. In addition to providing direct funding, the AfDB will act as the Initial Mandate Lead Arranger (IMLA), aiming to raise up to USD 3.2 billion from commercial banks, institutional investors, Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), and Development Financial Institutions (DFIs). This transformative infrastructure project is poised to bring substantial regional benefits by enabling cost-effective and reliable long-distance transportation for both people and businesses. It will enhance Burundi’s capacity in large-scale mining especially nickel and boost its commercial agriculture. Moreover, by linking major economic zones, population hubs, and industrial parks along its path, the railway is expected to drive industrialization and economic diversification across the region.
Aligned with key regional and continental development agendas, the project supports the East African Community (EAC) Rail Master Plan, the African Union’s Infrastructure Development in Africa Strategy, and AfDB’s “High 5” priorities, particularly “Integrate Africa.” It also fits within the Bank’s Regional Integration Strategy Paper for East Africa and the Country Strategy Papers for both Tanzania and Burundi, reinforcing its strategic significance for regional growth and integration.
Rwanda
Bugesera airport construction resumes as Rwanda eyes 2027 launch
The Rwandan government is preparing to restart construction of the long-delayed Bugesera International Airport with new funding allocated in the 2025/2026 national budget. Located about 25 kilometers south of Kigali, the project has faced repeated delays due to changes in planning, financing challenges, and the Covid-19 pandemic. While the exact amount set aside for the airport has not been disclosed, it is included in Rwanda’s national budget of approximately USD 5.45 billion, which aims to keep construction on schedule for a revised 2027 launch date, according to government updates released in May 2024.
Launched in 2017, the airport is being developed in two phases. Upon completion of phase one, the facility is expected to serve 7 million passengers annually. Phase two, set for completion in 2032, will expand total capacity to 14 million passengers per year. The airport will also include a cargo terminal with an annual handling capacity of 150,000 tons. The entire project is valued at nearly USD 2 billion and forms a central part of Rwanda’s strategy to become East Africa’s second major aviation hub after Ethiopia. Qatar Airways, which holds a 60% stake in RwandAir, is a key partner in the airport’s development and is expected to play a significant role in boosting traffic once operations commence. To support construction, Rwanda is also seeking a USD 200 million loan from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). For foreign investors, this project highlights Rwanda’s commitment to modern infrastructure and offers potential opportunities in construction, aviation services, logistics, and commercial real estate. It also reinforces Rwanda’s openness to international financing and public-private partnerships, creating a favorable climate for long-term investment in the region.
Democratic Republic of Congo
Advans Congo to inject USD 100 million into DRC economy in 2025
Advans Congo Microfinance plans to double its loan disbursements in 2025 by targeting over USD 100 million in new loans, up from just over USD 50 million in 2024, according to Managing Director Jean-Luc Nzoubou in an interview with Bankable in Kinshasa. By the end of May 2025, Advans had already disbursed nearly USD 30 million in loans, and the management remains confident of meeting or even surpassing the annual target, noting that 70% of loans are typically issued between July and December. At the end of 2024, the institution opened two new branches in Greater Katanga, in Lubumbashi and Kolwezi, bringing its network to 11 locations nationwide, including five in Kinshasa. These new branches already account for 30% of loan disbursements in 2025, prompting plans to open two more branches in the region.
Advans has introduced a streamlined loan processing system that enables new customers to receive loans within seven days and even faster for existing clients. According to the company’s website, loan amounts range from USD 100 to USD 200,000 with monthly interest rates capped at 5 %. The focus is on micro and small businesses with at least one year of operation, and repayment terms are tailored to business needs, ranging from six to 18 months for working capital and up to 36 months for investment loans. Advans closed 2024 with gross loans outstanding of approximately USD 41 million, reflecting a 49.4% increase from 2023. CEO Nzoubou described the year as one of strong growth. The expansion was supported by solid risk controls as gross disputed loans rose only slightly from around USD 3 million to USD 3.2 million.
Upcoming events
Africa Energy Forum
Date: 17–20 June 2025
Time: Daily program runs from 09:00–17:00.
Venue: CTICC 1, Cape Town International Convention Centre, Cape Town, South Africa.
Agenda
- Keynotes & high-level panels on financing electrification and energy transition strategies
- Closed-door roundtables on corporate leadership, utilities, grid, gas and renewables topics
- Breakout streams focusing on tech innovation (e‑mobility, AI, IoT), hydrogen, gas vs renewables, financing mechanisms, minerals & mining energy integration
How to register:
Visit the Africa Energy Forum website and register through this link-
Who should attend:
- Ministers and government officials shaping energy policy
- Investors, developers & financiers seeking African energy investment opportunities
- Utility companies, regulators & grid operators
- Technology providers and EPC firms
- NGOs, DFIs and consultancies focused on sustainable energy solutions
Key features:
- In-depth exploration of continent-wide energy systems of the future
- Extensive panel and roundtable discussions with senior decision‑makers
- Hands-on tech innovation showcase on AI, e‑mobility, storage, hydrogen
- Dynamic networking hub with 150+ exhibitors, 2,000+ delegates
- Cross-sectoral insights spanning fossil, renewable, minerals, and finance spheres
Opinion of the week
“Across our corporate base globally the interest in Africa is high and growing, and I would say it is about the level that it was in Asia 30 years ago. And if you look at how developing Asia has moved on, that is good news. It means there is interest and that means there is money and intellectual property wanting to get into Africa.”
Dominic Barton, global managing director of McKinsey & Company
Conclusion
As East Africa’s economies pursue ambitious domestic agendas, the region is witnessing a redefinition of opportunity rooted not in collective policy but in country-specific momentum. While regional integration may be sidelined for now, the diverse fiscal initiatives and sectoral investments emerging across Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and the DRC reveal rich ground for targeted, localized investment. From strategic infrastructure and financial reform to energy, agriculture, and aviation, the scope for engagement is both broad and deep. However, success in this climate demands agility, attentiveness to shifting national policies, and a recalibration of regional expectations. We invite you to stay informed, stay adaptable, and stay connected with us for more curated insights that illuminate the East African investment frontier.
Resources
Monitor (2025)
Tanzania Invest (2025)
Ecofin agency (2025)
Xinhua (2025)
Africa buildmart (2025)
http://directory.buildmartafrica.com/detail-news.php?NEWS_ID=1184&PAGE_ID=7
Ecofin agency (2025)
Bankable (2025)
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